Coronavirus – When Will Your State Death Rate Peak? State-By-State Projections

COVID-19 cases vary greatly by state.

A widely cited model offers some predictions. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s COVID-19 projections were cited in recent White House briefings and take into account how the pandemic is playing out in several countries around the world. They incorporate the current trend line of deaths in U.S. states and the estimated impact of social distancing measures to predict when each state might reach peak daily deaths and hospital usage.

You can view your own state’s peak and projected totals below, or see how all states compare.

Note: This projection is current as of April 8, at 1 p.m. ET, and will be updated periodically as the modelers input new data. The visualization shows the day each state may reach its peak between now and Aug. 4. The projected peak is when a state’s curve begins to show a consistent trend downward.

Click the image to go to the original image, then scroll to the bottom of the page and  select ‘show more.’

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Projected State Peak Dates

  • April 4, 2020: Alaska, D.C., Vermont
  • April 5, 2020: Wisconsin
  • April 6, 2020: Washington
  • April 7, 2020: Michigan, Nevada
  • April 8, 2020: Illinois, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio
  • April 9, 2020: Delaware, Idaho, New Hampshire, New York
  • April 10, 2020: Colorado
  • April 13, 2020: Indiana
  • April 14, 2020: West Virginia
  • April 15, 2020: California, Maryland
  • April 17, 2020: Hawaii, Maine, North Carolina, Pennsylvania
  • April 19, 2020: Mississippi
  • April 20, 2020: Alabama, Tennessee
  • April 21, 2020: Montana
  • April 25, 2020: Connecticut, Kentucky, New Mexico
  • April 26, 2020: Missouri, Oregon
  • April 27, 2020: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Virginia
  • April 28, 2020: Oklahoma, Texas
  • April 29, 2020: South Carolina, Utah
  • April 30, 2020: Arkansas, North Dakota,
  • May 1, 2020: South Dakota
  • May 2, 2020: Iowa, Nebraska, Wyoming


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